Plainsong Farm
Photo by Anna Strumillo, used under a Creative Commons license. Available at http://www.fotopedia.com/items/6nf9pniglhbor-6ukS_bz6xOc
Tom Ferguson recently posted a manifesto on the coming collapse of the Episcopal Church. I was relieved to read it. Perhaps because the numbers are so daunting, we’ve been reluctant to name the elephant in the middle of the room. But if we don’t name it, we won’t be able to discuss it… and if we don’t discuss it, we won’t be able to make any progress.
I hear that if you need to eat an elephant, you do it one small bite at a time. It’s impossible to start taking those small bites when you don’t know there’s an elephant to be eaten.
I’d like to take a closer look at this situation with some data and my reflections on it. This is what I think about late at night on my own and it would be nice to think with some other people for a change. So, I look forward to your comments. If any of you are thinking about this on your blogs, or reading about it elsewhere, I’d love to know where to look.
First, some data. I recently stumbled across this chart, published by the Evangelical Lutheran Church in America. Take a quick look at it, especially noticing the last two lines:
Do you see what I see? The rate of decline is slow from about 2003 until 2009. But in 2010, the rate of individual decline jumps from about 2% to about 6%. Why? There’s a logical correlation with the fact that in 2010, the number of churches closed goes from under 100 to over 300.
How does this apply to the Episcopal Church? The next few charts indicate the answer. The first two are from this report available to the church from our Department of Research and Statistics. 
The first chart shows that a solid majority (56%) of the Episcopal Church is over 50 years old. (I love people over 50! Some of my closest friends are people over 50!)
The second chart shows that a solid majority of our smallest parishes (those who have under 50 people in worship on an average Sunday) include at least 35% over the age of 65. (I love people over 65! Some of my most cherished mentors are over 65!)
But, even though I love people over 50 and people over 65 (and I do!), data reported to the Executive Council in January (slide 17) shows that congregations with more older members are less likely to grow.
Remember the figure above that showed that a solid majority of our smallest churches included at least 35% people over 65? Let’s connect that fact with another: the Episcopal Church is made up largely of small congregations. In 2008, half of all Episcopal parishes had an average Sunday worship attendance of 70 or fewer. (See below.)
Here is the conclusion I draw from the data above (if I’m wrong, that’s what comments are for):
If half of the Episcopal Church’s congregations average fewer than 70 people in worship…
and more than half of all congregations with under 100 people on an average Sunday include at least 35% people over 65…
then at least a quarter of the Episcopal Church’s congregations include at least 35% of people over 65.
Given that we know more than half of the Episcopal Church’s population is over the age of 50, I think it is fair to say:
More than a quarter of the Episcopal Church’s congregations include more than 35% people over 65. If they mirror the overall age of the church, they may be made up of more than 50% people over 50.
And… if congregations with older populations are less likely to grow…
It is quite likely that we will soon find ourselves in a position much like the Evangelical Lutheran Church in America, with a significant uptick in the number of congregations closing and a similarly significant uptick in the rate of numeric decline.
The Episcopal Church has the same information available to us as is available to the Evangelical Lutheran Church in America. I took the information available in this report and organized it the same way the ELCA organized their chart above. It shows that this hasn’t happened in the past five years. (Afterwards, I found this chart with 2000-2010 data, showing it hasn’t happened in the last 10 years either.):
Like the Lutherans, the last year for which we have data available is 2010. At this point, we are cruising along with a moderate rate of decline, losing less than 2% of churches and 3 to 4% of individuals. Not great, but not calamitous.
However, given data showing that our parishes tend toward the smaller side, our age range is high, and older congregations tend not to grow, it is reasonable to assume that in the future we will be closing more parishes. (This assumes that mortality as a result of advanced age continues to be part of the human condition. I think this is a reasonable assumption.)
We also know that in 2010, the Episcopal Church had 286 congregations with an average Sunday attendance of 10 or fewer, which is 4% of all Episcopal congregations. It is my best guess that unless change occurs in these churches, a majority of them will close in the next ten to twenty years.
At this point we are not opening as many congregations are we are closing… not even close (see slide 15):
And this is the case even though new congregations are apparently more able to integrate newcomers than established churches are (see page 2 here):
If these trends continue, one of these years we will close 200+ more churches than we open. When that year comes, we will see a significantly greater rate of decline than we have seen thus far. Unless something changes, that year is coming.
At this point, this is all still projection. But if these trends continue, then at the diocesan level we will find ourselves in the following situation:
- Loving people who are wondering if God’s will for them is the closure of their church
- Loving people who are grieving the loss of their formerly vital, beloved church
- Loving people who don’t understand what God is doing in their hearts, their lives and their communities
- Owning buildings that are no longer stewarded by an active, local congregation
- Deciding if we are selling property into a depressed market (If current trends continue, many mainline and evangelical denominations will be attempting to sell church buildings.)
- Trying to figure out how to engage in ministry with isolated Episcopalians and seekers who no longer have a vital Episcopal church home in their local community
- Trying to figure out if we should attempt to replace the income that we used to receive from the congregations that no longer exist, cut expenses, and/or merge with other dioceses to cut costs.
In summary, this will be our situation:
- fewer people… and more opportunities for mission and evangelism
- less annual operating revenue… and more assets on our balance sheets
As I reflect on all this, I wonder what God is doing in our midst and what God calls us to do as servants of His mission in the world. Recently we read John 15: Jesus said, “I am the true vine, and my Father is the vinegrower. He removes every branch in me that bears no fruit. Every branch that bears fruit he prunes to make it bear more fruit.”
I do not believe that God is ending the life of the Episcopal Church. But it surely appears that God is pruning the Episcopal Church. Over the next twenty or thirty years of our life together, we will live with the pain of that pruning process. At the same time we will need to seek the renewed life, the gift of bearing fruit, that is God’s promise for God’s people. How might we live the promise that this time of pruning is for the greater purpose of bearing fruit for God’s kingdom?
Perhaps the answer is this:
Reposted from Facebook: Originally posted by My Attitude - My Life - My Rules, https://www.facebook.com/MAMLMR
We have to start naming the road we’re on,
and asking God to show us another way.
* * * * *
If you’ve read this far, please read this second post with some clarifying thoughts and links to further data.
Worth sharing?
17 Responses to A Time to be Pruned
Good to meet you! I’m Nurya…
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It’s interesting here in Pittsburgh, being one of the diocese that recently underwent a great split. Your talk of loving those who are hurt and grieving because their parish as they knew it no longer exists (there are many people here who were victimized by the split) is spot on. And in the years to come, a dioceses like ours, which has survived schism will have much to teach the church at large about tending to that hurt. Here in Pittsburgh, there is still pain and it definitely creates a pastoral need that may be on-going for some time. But (and this is the important part) because we have been pruned (unwillingly and painfully, but pruned none-the-less), we are now facing an opportunity of great renewal and revitalization for the parishes that remain. We are forging stronger working relationships where before there was fear and mistrust. We have come to feel even more strongly what it means to be called into communion with those whose opinions, worship styles, political beliefs, etc., all might be different from our own. We all gather at the same table; and thus learning to deal lovingly with one another it provides us with a better model for how to deal with the variety of people outside our doorstep. I think the pruning of the church at large will be painful – it’s like picking a scab and it keeps on bleeding. But it WILL heal, and I think we will be stronger and better poised to move forward into a new era. We may be smaller, with fewer parishes and fewer souls associated with them. But I think we will have a stronger Episcopal identity and a more clear understanding of what we are called to do in the world.
Lisa, thank you so much for these words of hope. I thank God for the fact that you see opportunity, that you are dreaming of a stronger future.
I wonder about the pruning metaphor – its suggests a sense of control that seem very much an aspect of the Baby Boomer mindset. I say this as a Boomer myself – we too often think we can manage any problem, we have a disproportionate confidence in our ability to fix something.
I am certain the Episcopal/Anglican traditions wil endure – but I am also confident they will take new forms, ones that are unlikely to be managed by 815 or even dioceses. New life comes from death, gardens must be tilled under.
I take comfort in the words of Oscar Romero:
We are workers, not master builders; ministers, not messiahs.
We are prophets of a future not our own.
http://www.intervarsity.org/slj/article/1354
Bob, I’m always grateful when you take the time to comment.
I think I’m complimented to be added to the Boomer generation (I’m GenX), but I am confused that the pruning metaphor suggests a sense of control. I meant to suggest the very opposite: that we want to have life in all our branches, but that God is pruning some of them whether we like it or not. I for one would LOVE to control which parishes in my diocese have life (all of them! all of them!) yet I don’t seem to be able to do that. No surprise, I’m only human. The John 15 quote suggests that it is God’s work. We are not in charge.
Thank you for the Oscar Romero quote. It’s worth holding on to.
I attend Nuryas’ parish and, while I find she and the Vicar quite inspiring, the Episcopal values and mine in perfect step, I still find myself wondering about this very issue. I am 49 and my husband is 59. I look around at church and frankly wonder how it can survive. There are very few people my age. The congregation is small. As a person with a progressive disease I know I’m running on a shorter lifespan. The Church must sometimes feel as I do…and that is sad to me because the values and teachings of this church are simply beautiful. Still, I want to go to church and have it filled with young people…I am at a loss over this and l am very troubled by it.
Hi Christine! Thanks for commenting! I always like it when I can hug commenters because they are also in my real life
I had not realized there were parishioners at St Andrew’s with these questions. I see St Andrew’s as very well-positioned for survival and growth. We have more young people than many other Episcopal churches. We have a critical mass of young families, enough that we are adding more. In both numbers and operating budget, we are one of the largest Episcopal churches in Western Michigan.
Now, we still have plenty of room to grow! But I feel very grateful for St Andrew’s, in part because I expect it to outlast me. I can’t say the same for every other parish in our diocese. I wish I could.
Reading your words, I realize that so much depends on what theoretical alternative is being considered. I am sure there are parishes compared to which we appear fragile. I am used to comparing us to parishes which are more fragile than we are. Thank you for giving me the chance to try on a different perspective.
As a member of a parish that was artlessly and callously “pruned,” I am pleading for compassionate care for those who find themselves in the same position. Pruned branches can either be left on the ground to wither and die, or carefully planted in rich soil to start new life. I do not believe this pastoring work has to be clergy led; in fact, I think an altogether different set of skills will be necessary to help wounded parishes grieve, recover and thrive. In the corporate world, we now call this process “rightsizing,” adjusting overhead to meet real market conditions, in an effort to boost productivty and profits. Or, in some cases, to ensure survival. It’s never easy, but done well, it should address the entire organization, not just the least powerful and most expendable. If the Church “prunes,” I hope it has the moral courage to address the value of those individuals and structures at the highest levels of the hierarchy. Thank you, Nurya, and the others in TEC who are asking the tough questions.
Dear Polly,
Thank you for commenting! As I said to Christine, I always appreciate it when I can hug commenters in real life. And thank you for your careful words. I know your situation is difficult.
I am learning from your comment and from Bob’s (earlier) that I did not communicate what I intended with the pruning metaphor. I did not mean that human beings were pruning parishes–human beings acting artlessly and callously–but rather that God is pruning the church as a whole. We are not being given new life in all our branches… some branches which are now alive look like they will be gone in a generation… we don’t know why. I trust that it is so that we can bear abundant life in the future. I can trust that only to the degree that it I believe is the work of God.
Yet I know God is not the only one whose will is being worked out in this world. And one of the problems with being human is never being exactly sure what God is doing.
But Polly, you are right: get some vermiculite and some water, and a pruned branch can set new roots. In time it can be transplanted into new soil and bear fruit. That’s a metaphor worth pondering as well.
Interesting to consider Bishop Sauls’ recent comments on the GC in light of this discussion. God may be pruning, but there are human hands on the shears.
The pruning metaphor is a good one, and fresh in my mind since we had it in the lectionary just last week (John 15:1-8). Jesus says that God prunes branches that bear no fruit, and also prunes branches that aren’t bearing fruit to their potential, so that they can bear more fruit. In either case, the purpose of the pruning process is so that the plant can grow, and the job of the branch is to abide in the vine – in Jesus. I believe we can trust Jesus with this pruning process, though it will be painful for many of us. I also think the outcome will be unpredictable – we won’t just continue to grow or produce in the same way we have for the last 50 years. The plant will begin to grow in a whole new direction.
Nurya, I appreciate your dedication to helping midwife this process (to switch metaphors), and I especially appreciate your passion for ministry with young families and children. You are an inspiration!
Blessings, Susan Snook
From most blogs I have read on this topic, I fear the church is heading to General Convention armed with pruning hooks. See my take at:
http://stephentayres.com/2012/05/14/discernment-during-institutional-depression/
The Lutheran statistics may be misleading if they count congregations that vote to leave as being closed congregations. Unlike the Episcopal Church, ELCA congregations may complete a process to leave the ECLA as a whole congregation, including keeping the buildings. So their stats on closures in recent years may mean little for Episcopalians and have nothing to do with smaller congregations losing their ability to fully function.
Thank you for this clarification. I also heard from someone via private message that the Lutherans made a denomination-wide decision in 2009 that led to congregations deciding to depart from the ELCA. As you describe, Lutherans are able to do that and keep the facility.
Based on this new information (new to me), the analogy in terms of an immediate uptick in closing congregations is not as strong as I originally described. However, I think the rest of the demographic data continues to point to the conclusions I reached in the post. The good news is that we have more time than the Lutheran data suggests as it is not as immediately pertinent to our situation as I thought when I found it last week.
This is an incredibly thorough analysis of the current situation of TEC. I appreciate the data and will refer to it as we continue to reflect on the decline of future of the church. If we don’t wake up and find the straight and perhaps narrow bath of John the Baptist, we shall indeed find outselves immersed in our own Calvary, but not the salvific kind.
I’m preparing a presentation to local Episcopalians on mission, structure, and budget, and I want to thank you, Nurya, and your commenters, for helping me prepare.
We are also, in the Diocese of Milwaukee, engaged in a strategic planning process that is thinking about what the diocese needs to become in order to do mission in the twenty-first century. Yes, it is a painful time, but God is leading us into this future and has given us the gifts, skills, and resources we need to be the church of the future.
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